The Evidence · HJR 1F & the Orange County Budget

The county doesn't have one big checkbook.

Here's the math behind the video — every figure with its source attached, and every estimate labeled as an estimate. No yard-sign numbers.

$8.3B Total county budget — the number everyone quotes
$1.73B The General Fund — the one account spent at the commission's discretion
~91% Of the General Fund's recurring revenue that is property tax alone
The Figures · All Sourced

Straight from the adopted budget.

These aren't estimates. Every number below comes directly from Orange County's FY 2025-26 adopted budget.

General Fund — total sourcesIncludes one-time balances and transfers already committed elsewhere.
$1,731,481,128Sourced
Recurring revenue the fund generates itselfAfter stripping one-time carry-forward and committed transfers.
~$986,000,000Sourced
Of that — property tax (ad valorem)~91% of recurring revenue. The fund's only large, county-controlled engine.
$950,514,668Sourced
Public safety (Sheriff, Corrections, courts)Sheriff $423M · Corrections $218M — about 70¢ of every recurring dollar.
$694,490,609Sourced
Human services (behavioral health, homelessness)Roughly the same size as the modeled annual exemption loss.
$178,917,720Sourced
General Fund reserves7.6% of the fund — about half the GFOA two-month guideline.
$124,703,073Sourced
The Estimate · Where the Loss Number Comes From

No government stamped a figure for one county. Here's how I built mine.

The state's Revenue Estimating Conference recorded this amendment's impact as "indeterminate" — it depends on the November vote. So the county number is an estimate on state data, and my General-Fund figure is a further estimate on top of that. Both are labeled, every time.

The three layers behind the loss estimate

Nothing here is a number a government published for this amendment. Each layer is shown so you can see exactly where the figure comes from — and where the assumptions enter.

Layer 1 State data (official). The Revenue Estimating Conference's January 2026 ad valorem tax-roll data. This part is official. REC / EDR
Layer 2 County-wide estimate (FAC). The Florida Association of Counties applied that state data to the $250K exemption — Orange County, all non-school levies combined. ~$253M/yr
Layer 3 General-Fund-only (my estimate). The General Fund is ~58% of the county's total ad valorem. Applying that share isolates the hit to the one flexible account. ~$145–150M/yr
Where my number is exposed

The General-Fund figure is a range, not a point — the 58% share and the homestead distribution both move it. A parcel-level homestead breakdown from the property appraiser would tighten it. My number sits inside the FAC county-wide estimate; it doesn't compete with it. If the state ever publishes an HJR 1F-specific county table, that supersedes my math.

Go Read Them Yourself

Primary sources. Every one public.

Don't take my word for any of it — here are the documents behind every figure above.

01 Enrolled CS/HJR 1FThe amendment itself — The Florida Senate Open ↗ 02 CS/HJR 1F — full bill text (PDF)Read Section 9 and the "core services" language yourself Open ↗ 03 Orange County FY 2025-26 adopted budgetEvery sourced dollar figure above Open ↗ 04 FAC Fiscal Impact Reader's GuideThe county-wide ~$253M estimate and its method Open ↗ 05 EDR Revenue Estimating ConferenceThe underlying state ad valorem data (Layer 1) Open ↗ 06 Orange County Property AppraiserLook up your own parcel and your August TRIM notice Open ↗
Sourced from an adopted budget or bill State data official figures applied to this amendment Estimate my math, method shown above
Florida Real Estate Insider

Figures rounded for clarity. Sourced numbers and estimates are labeled distinctly throughout. This page updates if the state publishes an HJR 1F-specific impact table, or if the Leon County ballot-language case changes the amendment or its timeline.

Not legal or financial advice — a working realtor showing his math. Consult a Florida real estate attorney or your county property appraiser for guidance on your specific situation.