The county doesn't have one big checkbook.
Here's the math behind the video — every figure with its source attached, and every estimate labeled as an estimate. No yard-sign numbers.
Straight from the adopted budget.
These aren't estimates. Every number below comes directly from Orange County's FY 2025-26 adopted budget.
No government stamped a figure for one county. Here's how I built mine.
The state's Revenue Estimating Conference recorded this amendment's impact as "indeterminate" — it depends on the November vote. So the county number is an estimate on state data, and my General-Fund figure is a further estimate on top of that. Both are labeled, every time.
The three layers behind the loss estimate
Nothing here is a number a government published for this amendment. Each layer is shown so you can see exactly where the figure comes from — and where the assumptions enter.
The General-Fund figure is a range, not a point — the 58% share and the homestead distribution both move it. A parcel-level homestead breakdown from the property appraiser would tighten it. My number sits inside the FAC county-wide estimate; it doesn't compete with it. If the state ever publishes an HJR 1F-specific county table, that supersedes my math.
Primary sources. Every one public.
Don't take my word for any of it — here are the documents behind every figure above.
Figures rounded for clarity. Sourced numbers and estimates are labeled distinctly throughout. This page updates if the state publishes an HJR 1F-specific impact table, or if the Leon County ballot-language case changes the amendment or its timeline.
Not legal or financial advice — a working realtor showing his math. Consult a Florida real estate attorney or your county property appraiser for guidance on your specific situation.
Every dollar the county collects — and the leash on each one.
You clicked through for the whole picture — here it is. This is where Orange County's money actually comes from, and what the law says each source can and can't pay for. The point the summary makes in brief, shown line by line.
All figures are FY 2025-26 adopted-budget revenue numbers, verified against Orange County's budget document. Revenue scope is used throughout — not appropriations, not all-funds totals — so the numbers stay comparable. Where the budget states a figure at more than one scope, the footnotes name the alternate.
What the commission can actually decide how to spend.
These are the revenue streams that flow into the General Fund and can be directed to general government — the Sheriff, the jail, courts, parks, the safety net. This is the money a property-tax cut actually threatens, because it's the only large pool with real discretion.
The trap inside the flexible column
Three of these four "flexible" sources — the two sales-tax streams and revenue sharing — are general-purpose but demand-driven and formula-set. The county receives them; it can't dial them up to replace lost property tax. Strip those out and the only flexible revenue the county actually controls is the property tax itself and the utility tax. That's why a property-tax cut can't just be absorbed: the flexible column is mostly money the county can't grow on command.
Big numbers that legally cannot backfill a general-fund cut.
These streams look like they could rescue the budget — some are enormous. Every one is restricted by statute or covenant to a single purpose. This is the money people mean when they say "the county's sitting on billions." It's real. It just can't move.
The $8.3 billion is a misleading denominator.
Add up the locked money — tourism, gas taxes, enterprise systems, impact fees, capital, bond-pledged streams — and it dwarfs the flexible pool. But not one dollar of it can legally move to cover a General Fund shortfall. When people say "the county has plenty of money," they're counting the locked accounts.
The flexible money the commission actually controls is essentially the property tax and the utility tax. Property tax is ~91% of the General Fund's recurring revenue. So when HJR 1F cuts the homestead base, it lands on the one pool with no legal substitute — and the famous tourism and sales-tax money can't backfill a cent of it.
That's not an argument for or against the amendment. It's the plumbing. Whatever you decide in November, decide it knowing which dollars can move and which can't.
SCOPE NOTE. Every figure above is a revenue number from the FY 2025-26 adopted budget. The budget also reports some totals at other scopes; those aren't used here to keep the lines comparable. On the spending side, the budget states public safety at more than one scope — e.g., the Sheriff appears as a $423M operating budget and, separately, $432M in "total operating funds"; Fire Rescue as $435M and $530M; Corrections as $218M and $220M. Those are spending figures at different scopes, not revenue, and are noted here only so a careful reader isn't tripped by them elsewhere.
FLEXIBLE ≠ CONTROLLABLE. "Flexible" means general-purpose within the General Fund. It does not mean the county can increase it at will. Sales-tax and revenue-sharing streams are set by state formula and consumption; only the property tax and the capped utility tax are levers the county can actually turn.
Source: Orange County FY 2025-26 Adopted Budget (orangecountyfl.net) ↗
Not legal or financial advice — a working realtor showing his math. Figures rounded where noted. Consult a Florida real estate attorney or the county property appraiser for your specific situation.